Strategy in a world of overlapping disruptions
How leaders can make sharper choices on where to compete, where to invest and what to stop when multiple structural shifts hit at once.
Read articleWhat Still Deserves to Be Saved?
Recovery fails when management treats every inherited activity as equally entitled to survive. The first task is to separate viable economic engines and reusable capabilities from businesses sustained by cross-subsidy, optimistic forecasts or the fear of recognising loss. Saving value is different from preserving the current shape.
Assess each business at the smallest level with meaningfully independent demand and cash flow. Test customer need, contribution after avoidable cost, working-capital burden, reinvestment, competitive position and time to recovery. Remove historical corporate allocations, but add the real standalone capabilities required. Distinguish a sound operation with an unsustainable balance sheet from an operation that destroys cash before financing.
IAS 36 offers a useful discipline: assess recoverability at the smallest cash-generating unit and compare value in use with fair value less disposal costs. A turnaround needs a similar dual view. Some assets are worth more rebuilt inside the system; others release greater value through sale, partnership, run-off or transfer to an owner with different capabilities.
Capabilities require their own test. Customer access, licences, talent, data, technology or supplier positions may deserve protection even when the product around them does not. Name the future use, cost to preserve and expiry of the option. Avoid keeping an entire loss-making structure merely because one valuable element has not been separated.
Create a triage map: invest, stabilise, harvest, separate or close, with liquidity required and evidence for each decision. Act before cash scarcity removes the best options. OECD work on insolvency stresses timely restructuring of viable firms and exit of non-viable ones because delayed distinction traps capital. Recovery begins when hope is replaced by explicit recoverability.
Related macro
Articles
How leaders can make sharper choices on where to compete, where to invest and what to stop when multiple structural shifts hit at once.
Read articleHow turnaround strategies can rebuild competitive position by resetting the portfolio, operating priorities and sources of future growth.
Read articleFocus
A strategy becomes meaningful when priorities impose consequences on where capital, leadership attention and capabilities will not be allocated.
Revenue potential alone says little about attractiveness when bargaining power, acquisition effort, implementation and cost to serve vary materially.
Strategic challenges
A message that reassures investors may create concern among employees, regulators or communities if underlying interests are not understood.
Hiring, infrastructure and market expansion can institutionalise assumptions that were never properly tested at smaller scale.
POV
Growth becomes destructive when new units cannibalise existing demand or require economics that operators cannot sustain.
A venture that loses value with every additional customer has a business-model problem, not a growth problem.
Strategic impact
A shift in regulation, technology or bargaining power can move economic value between participants without changing total industry demand.
Competitive strategy can create more value by altering customer choice, economics or market structure than by outperforming rivals on established terms.
What we observe
We frequently see strategic importance assigned according to revenue while complexity, concessions and servicing requirements quietly erode value.
We frequently see businesses emphasise differences customers can recognise but have little reason to value or pay for.