The strategic cost of dependency
Why concentrated exposure to critical technologies, materials and infrastructure is becoming a board-level issue across industries.
Read articleRelated macro
Geopolitics
Assess geopolitical shifts, exposure and scenarios to inform strategy, investment, operations and market decisions.
Discover the macroEditorial overview
Articles
Industrial policy is rewriting competitive economics
How subsidies, export controls and state intervention can alter the relative attractiveness of markets, technologies and investment locations.
Read articleFocus
Geography still determines how geopolitical shocks reach the enterprise
Location shapes exposure to conflict, infrastructure, trade routes, political blocs and regional economic contagion.
Industrial policy is changing competitive economics across sectors and markets
Subsidies, incentives, procurement rules and state intervention can reshape investment returns and competitive positioning.
Strategic challenges
Where would an energy or materials shock hit the business first?
The challenge is tracing direct and indirect exposure across inputs, suppliers, logistics, pricing and customer demand.
Which parts of the business become vulnerable as conflict escalates?
The challenge is identifying where exposure intensifies before disruption becomes visible in financial performance.
POV
Compliance tells you what is prohibited; strategy must ask what becomes unviable
Sanctions and export controls can alter business economics long before an activity becomes formally impossible.
A dependency is strategic when another actor can remove your freedom to operate
The relevant issue is not supplier importance alone, but whether external control can materially constrain enterprise choices.
Strategic impact
Shock analysis translates geopolitical events into enterprise consequences
Structured exposure mapping helps leadership distinguish headline significance from events that can materially alter operations.
Shock analysis reveals where resource exposure can alter operating economics
Connecting geopolitical events with critical inputs helps management assess cost, continuity and substitution implications.
What we observe
Sanctions risk is often treated as compliance rather than strategic exposure
Legal screening can identify prohibited activity without revealing how restrictions could reshape markets, suppliers or business models.
Companies often call a dependency strategic only after disruption occurs
Low-probability exposure is easily ignored when alternatives have not been tested and access has historically been reliable.